The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the U.S. Economy: Supply Disruptions or Changing Consumption Preferences?
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The Impact of the
COVID-19 Pandemic on
the U.S. Economy:
Supply Disruptions or
Changing Consumption
Preferences?
Pablo D. Fajgelbaum, Amit Khandelwal,
Wenlan Lou, and Christian R. Meisels
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES
WORKING PAPER 27559
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH
1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
July 2020
ABSTRACT
We study how the COVID-19 pandemic affected the U.S. economy in its early stages. We use a novel dataset on daily consumer spending across sectors and regions to document that consumption fell sharply after the onset of the pandemic. The decline was concentrated in contact-intensive sectors such as restaurants and travel. We find that these patterns are consistent with changes in consumer preferences driven by health concerns, rather than supply disruptions. Our results suggest that policies aimed at restoring consumer confidence may be more effective than those focused solely on reopening businesses.
JEL Classification Numbers: E21, E24, I18